The Pacific Alliance, a regional integration initiative which brought together the economics of Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile, has garnered a surprising amount of attention from around the world after only six years since its creation; more than 50 countries have flocked to become observers. To understand the sudden interest one has to look at the member’s ability to establish themselves as a credible and ambitious body with incredible potential to increase investment and trade opportunities in the region. Nevertheless and despite the relative success that the PA has had to date, there remain large obstacles it must overcome to achieve its ambitious goals.
Whither Now Brexit?
Without a House of Commons majority, parliamentary mathematics suggests that Brexit can only be agreed and delivered if the Conservative minority government forges a cross-party approach to Brexit. This would likely mean that May will have to compromise on her hard Brexit plan in order to create a new national consensus. BUT here, we must caution against overestimating the role of Britain on the Brexit process. An equal if not greater share of the decision will depend on the EU. The degree of hardness or softness is NOT a unilateral choice to be made by the UK.
E-Commerce from Remote Locations
The promise of e-commerce and digital trade is that it can empower individuals and firms from anywhere to find customers, suppliers, and engage in trade globally. It has enabled the tiniest companies to become “micro-multinationals.” A first customer can literally be found across the world. But this promise is sometimes harder to implement than it first appears. In Fiji and other Pacific island states, the potential seems to remain largely just that—a promise rather than a reality. Why this might be so is a bit puzzling.
Viewing Steel As an Example of "America First"
Moreover if the US tries to justify a broad-based tariff or quota for all steel products on the grounds of 'national security,' it will embolden other countries to use the same justification on other categories of products leading to retaliation. Restrictive unilateral actions will not provide lasting solutions either. In short, labelling steel imports as a national security threat is neither necessary nor supportable by the facts. President Trump could take more moderate actions that may be enough to claim political victory while avoiding retaliation from global trading partners. But such a rational decision may not be so likely.
Limiting US Steel Imports Under Section 232
If the Trump trade team implements Section 232 for steel, it may use the same tool for other products in the future (and a similar investigation for aluminum is already underway). The Department of Commerce has been tasked to conduct the investigation, and to prepare a report for Trump within 270 days from the investigation’s initiation. Upon the submission of the Department of Commerce’s findings and recommendations, Trump will have up to 90 days to decide if he concurs, and to take action to ‘’adjust the imports of an article and its derivatives.’’ This Talking Trade post examines the 1,598 pages of public comments received by the Commerce Department in relation to the steel case from three key groups - domestic steel producers, downstream manufacturers reliant on steel inputs, and steel producers from other countries including Brazil, Canada and China.