Our experts’ views have been featured in
February 22nd 2023, The Philippine Star
Experts are bullish that the move holds great economic benefits for the Philippines. Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, said joining the RCEP is critical for the country.
‘“We are facing a few years (at least) of likely economic restructuring. Firms are looking hard at their location, production and delivery structures. Many are poised to make adjustments and some changes will be quite significant,” she said in an email.
Elms pointed out that competition could prove challenging at the start but she said the changes won't happen fast, especially for the Philippines.
“I don’t think RCEP will result in immediate competition pressures for most firms, as the Philippines is already well connected via a range of existing trade deals,” she said.
That will not be a permanent state of affairs, considering that markets will find a way to sort itself out. To this end, Elms agreed with Velasquez’s assessment.
“As the RCEP commitments deepen over time, it will make trade in Asia for Asian final markets more attractive. That will require many companies to work harder to remain competitive,” she said.
US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions
February 9th 2023, Bloomberg
"I think it's an important indication of the difficulties of actually decoupling," Deborah Elms, the founder of Asian Trade Centre, told the BBC.
"Even if governments, firms and consumers wanted to separate, the economics make it difficult to deliver products in a decoupled world at a price that firms and consumers are willing to pay," she added.
ASIA TRADE: What’s in store for Asia-Pacific trade agreements in 2023
January 18th 2023, Borderlex
In this guest column for Borderlex, Dr. Deborah Elms offered insights on how recent developments in key regional trade agreements will define the trade scene in the region for the year ahead.
Wine, Lobsters Could Be Next in China-Australia Trade Thaw
January 6th 2023, Bloomberg
Even if all the commodity curbs are lifted, trade flows will probably remain subdued, said Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore. “It’s not the government that trades, it’s individual firms. For companies, switching markets is not easy, fast or cost-free.”
ASIA TRADE: US Congress red lines shaping Indo-Pacific Economic Framework outcomes
December 8th 2022, Borderlex
In this guest column for Borderlex, Dr. Deborah Elms looked at some of the hidden red lines driving the negotiating positions of the United States in hammering out IPEF
Most firms haven't moved their supply chains away from China, says Asian Trade Centre
November 29th 2022, CNBC (video interview)
November 28th 2022, World Trade Organization
Dr. Deborah Elms was interviewed for the Fall 2022 newsletter of the WTO Informal Working Group on Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises
ASIA TRADE: What has Asia’s trade summit season delivered?
November 23rd 2022, Borderlex
In this guest column for Borderlex, Dr. Deborah Elms examines key takeaways on the trade front of the recent ASEAN and APEC summits held in the region.
ASIA TRADE: The challenges of expanding the CPTPP
November 3rd 2022, Borderlex
Dr. Deborah Elms writes in this guest column how the UK’s ongoing accession talks are proving to be a test case of CPTPP’ expansion potential and the challenges for members to manage other accession requests.
ASIA TRADE: A new Asian digital trade noodle bowl?
October 19th 2022, Borderlex (paywall)
Dr. Deborah Elms writes in this guest column on the different emerging trade arrangements governing digital trade rules.
Trade Minister attends IPEF Strategy Symposium
October 7th 2022, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (South Korea)
Asian Trade Center Executive Director Deborah Elms remarked that “the IPEF is not your conventional trade agreement, but it enables countries to seek new alternatives that were not feasible before.”
She suggested that it could be a system by which companies could substantially benefit if it could transport core products and services during crises.
Trans-Pacific trade pact members split over China’s bid to join
October 4th 2022, Australian Financial Review
Dr. Deborah Elms provided extensive insights on the negotiation dynamics taking place among CPTPP members in respect to China’s application to join the trade bloc.
London’s 2022 CPTPP accession hopes fade
September 28th 2022, Borderlex
“There is general dissatisfaction with the UK’s offer on market access, especially around agricultural market access,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore.
“It’s seen as underwhelming – too many gaps, too many exceptions, and too long a time horizon [for phasing out tariffs],” she added.
“It’s not a negotiation, it’s an accession. This is a one-sided process,” said Elms.
“The question is, what is the speed and intensity with which you [the UK] are going to give us things? You already know what we gave you – and that’s not changing.”
“The CPTPP members wanted to have a model accession process with the UK – smooth, fast and efficient,” said Elms. “But if these talks go into next year, how long can you keep other people waiting?”
Asia Trade – EU Indonesia free trade agreement: hope springs eternal
September 28th 2022, Borderlex
Dr. Deborah Elms writes in this guest column that political factors and deep-rooted disagreements over the EU’s sustainability and deforestation policies mean that finalizing the long-stalled trade deal with Indonesia will remain a tall order.
Asia Trade – What can IPEF deliver?
September 9th 2022, Borderlex
Dr. Deborah Elms unpacks IPEF and the challenges ahead in this guest column.
US to Start Economic Talks With 13 Nations to Counter China
September 8th 2022, Bloomberg
“At the moment you’ve got this combination of cautious optimism and continuing uncertainty,” Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, said of the framework. “The hope is that you will finish these couple days in LA with a better sense of what exactly are we talking about here. What are the parameters? What is it that I am going to have to do, and what am I going to get for doing that?”
Explainer | Why haven’t Philippines, Myanmar followed Indonesia and ratified the RCEP trade deal?
September 4th 2022, South China Morning Post
“The ‘missing’ members are aiming to be in by the end of the year. The Philippines was delayed by their election cycle. Indonesia has been managing the G20 and preparing for Asean chair next year. Plus they have a contested election ahead,” said Deborah Elms, the executive director of Asian Trade Centre.
“We are still waiting for all 15 to ratify RCEP. This is actually quite important, as members are hoping to announce full ratification prior to or simultaneous with the first collective meeting.
“The first item on the agenda is to address the issue of the RCEP Secretariat. Given the complexity of RCEP, a full-time staff to manage the institution is important.”
“RCEP could expand, but the agreement says that accession talks cannot start until mid-2023. Given the experience of many RCEP members grappling with accession to a parallel agreement, the [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], it is now clear that joining a mega regional is not as simple or fast as might be imagined,” Elms added.
“Implementation of RCEP among existing members has been uneven. Some aspects are in place, others less so. Some members are waiting for full ratification. Some are just moving slowly. Others have already largely completed the process.”
Asian Trade Centre’s Elms on US-Taiwan Trade
August 19th 2022, Bloomberg (video interview)
China’s ‘new normal’ for Taiwan raises fears for global trade
August 11th 2022, Al Jazeera
Deborah Elms, the executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, said firms would be reluctant to shift operations if they are facing “a short-term problem” due to the amount of time and effort involved in establishing shipping routes.
“Change is extra hard under challenging economic circumstances,” Elms told Al Jazeera. “Hence firms are mostly waiting to see if they have more clarity on the depth, scope and duration of whatever happens next.”
Elms said that while Asian governments, in particular, have usually prioritised economic goals, that is not always the case.
“Governments can endure significant economic consequences of decisions if they feel strongly enough about it,” she said.
China could take action against Taiwan, U.S. firms that supported Pelosi visit: Asian Trade Centre
August 3rd 2022, CNBC (video interview)
Massive RCEP trade deal fails in areas where smaller bilateral pacts in Asia-Pacific shine
August 2nd 2022, South China Morning Post
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director at the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, said that most RCEP members have been upgrading bilateral deals, or at least had negotiations with one another, since RCEP talks began in 2012.
“It is often possible to have specific commitments bilaterally that you do not want to share with a much bigger group,” she added. “Across the range of RCEP members, there are already FTAs that go beyond RCEP, as well as those that could be upgraded to go beyond RCEP.”
ASEAN, RCEP, IPEF and WTO: What Reporters Need to Know
July 25th 2022, National Press Foundation (training workshop for Asia-based trade journalists)
US promotes ‘friend-shoring’ of trade with eye on China, Russia
July 19th 2022, Al Jazeera
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, said friend-shoring can be “distorting” but it remains to be seen what kind of effects the system Yellen is calling for might have.
“If [friend-shoring] is firms making decisions about sourcing or supplying to ‘less risky’ locations, that may not be all that much different from current behaviours,” Elms told Al Jazeera.
“Governments already adjust the rules to favour some locations over others by, for example, signing trade agreements to remove impediments to trade or facilitate the movement of goods and services between their markets,” Elms added.
“At the moment, governments don’t seem to be doing more than encouraging firms to think about friend-shoring. If that switched to become an active set of policies to clearly give preferences to some markets over others, it could become much more problematic.”
US, China talk trade, supply chains as Biden weighs tariff cuts
July 5th 2022, Al Jazeera
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, described it as a positive that officials from the world’s two largest economies are continuing to meet.
“There is no way to manage tensions if communication is handled through the media rather than in person, or via Zoom,” Elms told Al Jazeera.
“The US administration line on China has been, and will continue to be, that China practises unfair trade. Therefore, it’s not a surprise to have Yellen repeat the statement. The big question, of course, is what can be done about it. Having discussions is a useful first step but will need to be followed up with more than random conversations between government officials.”
Uyghur Forced Labor Law Impacts China–US Supply Chains
June 21st 2022, Bloomberg (video interview)
WTO passes ‘unprecedented’ trade package after fraught talks
June 17th 2022, Al Jazeera
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, described the extension of the moratorium on e-commerce tariffs as “fantastic news” but said the outcome overall appeared to be a package that “avoids failure but does not represent resounding success either”.
Elms said the WTO’s failure to reach consensus on measures such as phasing out subsidies for illegal fishing showed the need for reform at the trade body.
“After two decades, they can’t stop subsidies on illegal fishing. Think about that: at the most basic, this was meant to stop subsidies from illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing,” Elms told Al Jazeera, while stressing she had not seen the final package.
“By definition, illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing isn’t supposed to happen at all. We were not discussing stopping such IUU fishing. No, it was about providing subsidies to support such activities. This is an appalling failure to deliver what should have been a simple act to save the future planet.”
Taiwan may get economic deal with US after exclusion from IPEF
May 31st 2022, Al Jazeera
“Taiwan, as always, has a struggle. It is well-positioned to join a wide variety of trade arrangements, with a willingness to adjust domestic regulations and policies, if needed, to support trade commitments,” Deborah Elms, founder and director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, told Al Jazeera.
“But it has an ongoing political structure that makes it extremely difficult for governments to launch talks with Taiwan.”
May 27th 2022, South China Morning Post (soft paywall)
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, said while Washington was not currently offering market access in the form of lower tariffs, this did not mean that there would be no market benefits available.
“Some members might benefit from expedited processing of goods at the border or from improved access to testing facilities and easier qualification for products,” Elms said, adding that these could be important for companies and might be included in the IPEF later on.
“It’s just not certain at the moment,” Elms said. She pointed out that the US may not have tried to attract Phnom Penh and Vientiane, as given their status as Least Developed Countries, they already had market access benefits into the US unlike other Asean members.
Fiji Joins Biden Economic Deal as US-China Competition Heats Up
May 27th 2022, Bloomberg (paywall)
“If it’s all about optics, then what you actually want is a lot of members, a lot of potential members,” said Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. “And because it’s the clean economy you could have pulled in, I would imagine, half of the Pacific island nations.”
Fiji to join Biden’s economic framework aimed at countering China
May 27th 2022, Al Jazeera
“I would have thought a good climate change and trade initiative would pull in most of the Pacific Islands,” Deborah Elms, president of the Asia Business Trade Association, told Al Jazeera.
“Given the dual threats of both unchecked climate change and disrupted trade patterns as a result, the island states are particularly vulnerable. One of the IPEF pillars is supposed to tackle these issues in some way. So it is likely that Fiji decided that joining IPEF’s clean pillar might be one way to help address the challenges.”
China remains the most economically important player in Asia, Asian Trade Centre says
May 25th 2022, CNBC (video interview)
US Must Be 'Strategic' on China Tariffs, Trade Chief Says
May 23rd 2022, Bloomberg (paywall)
The US is casting the net wider in Asia with the framework, though that might make a comprehensive agreement more difficult among countries that haven’t always followed through in other agreements, said Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre.
“The record suggests that some of these 12 are challenging partners to work with in terms of delivering results. A note of caution might be in order,” Elms said.
Biden Launches Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
May 23rd 2022, Voice of America
Deborah Elms, the founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre and the president of the Asia Business Trade Association said IPEF “represents a leap into the unknown, with limited understanding of how any new IPEF commitments might interact with existing pledges.”
“More important for many current governments is what is the level of commitment required of members? How many changes might be required at the domestic level? In exchange for what types of possible economic benefits?” Elms told VOA.
The IPEF launch document “was quite clear in referencing threats from China,” Elms said. “If you add Taiwan to the list of IPEF participants, it could be even harder to hold onto current signatories for the IPEF. China is the largest economic partner for all the members taking part in IPEF.”
Biden Struggles to Woo Asian Nations Wary of Upsetting China
May 20th 2022, Bloomberg (paywall)
“All of the governments in Asia have China as their number one or number two importer and exporter, so how much do I want to potentially antagonize my biggest economic partner in exchange for unclear, if any, benefits from the US?” said Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. “What it looks like is a lot of conditions and not a lot of economic benefits for participants.”
Biden’s No-Show on Trade Deals Risks Isolating Friends in Asia
May 12th 2022, Bloomberg (paywall)
For Deborah Elms, the Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, an April trip to testify before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Congress was a wake-up call. While she spoke about why the US should get more involved in trade deals, she said, some members of Congress were more focused on how to restrict US investment into China.
“The US has taken a very long time to get organized to start to talk about economic issues with Asia. In the meantime, Asian governments have continued to embrace trade agreements as one key approach to greater resilience and source of economic growth in the post-pandemic period,” she said in a recent interview.
“This leaves the US largely on the sidelines,” she said.
U.S. pitches 'defensive' Indo-Pacific trade rules in Singapore
April 5th 2022, Nikkei Asia (paywall)
"Normally when you send someone of her rank, you have some kind of deliverable that you are attempting to launch, sign and applaud. But she appears to have visited without any concrete deliverables," said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based advocacy group.
Tai's visit to Singapore was originally planned at the end of last year as a "listening tour," Elms said, but the trip was canceled due to the COVID-19 situation. "But now that it's several months later, Asian allies like Singapore are looking for concrete messages, words, actions."
RCEP is transforming trade in Asia Pacific and creating advantages for companies
April 4th 2022, Thomson Reuters
“It’s a trade deal that sets up trade in Asia, for Asia,” says Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore. “We’ve had a lot of trade in Asia, of course… [but] we don’t have as much final production that ends up in Asia,” Elms explains. “One of the reasons we don’t have that is because trade in the region, especially for finished goods, is too difficult, too expensive — tariffs in place, non-tariff challenges, etc. — so you have less trade in the region than you should have.”
She admits that RCEP is not a perfect agreement, but adds that it makes it more likely that firms will create Asia-based supply chains for Asian trade. “As the agreement comes into force and becomes more meaningful for firms, then it will accelerate over time,” Elms says.
Why does China want to join the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA)?
March 10th 2022, IT Pro
Aside from ensuring these data laws comply with DEPA, China’s fate is left in the hands of the agreement's members. When considering new applications, the current signatories to take into account whether China is prepared to follow the agreement’s provisions. The Asian Trade Centre says this is always true for accession processes, but might be even more relevant in a deal that’s built around shared norms and rule creation for the future.
Southeast Asia’s SMEs emit more carbon than Cambodia and need state help to change, specialists say
March 16th 2022, South China Morning Post
Sebastian Cortes, deputy director of Asian Trade Centre, which works with governments and companies to design better trade policies for the region, said that if SMEs are unable to meet their basic needs to keep afloat, such as access to working capital, it is “very difficult” to get them to engage with climate-related mitigation measures.
SMEs have also been pummelled by the Covid-19 pandemic, with many left struggling to pay for their operating costs.
“The pandemic had a tremendous impact on the cash flows of many SMEs that then struggled to cover employee salaries and expenses and in many cases, stay in business,” Cortes said.
SMEs are also having to cope with supply chain disruptions which have resulted in historically “high freight and air rates and problems sourcing materials to keep up with orders”, Cortes said.
Other challenges include accessing resources and infrastructure to grow, innovate and diversify their businesses.
“During Covid many SMEs have had to adjust their business models by going digital or diversifying their income streams,” Cortes said. “They often lack the human and financial resources to be able to implement those changes effectively.”
Many SMEs are also family-run businesses, with the “younger generation” far more “enthusiastic to undertake climate related action” than their elders, Cortes of Asia Trade Centre said.
Asian Trade Centre’s Cortes agreed, calling for continued “support and finance activities that strengthen SME survivability and sustainability in a post-Covid environment”, and more programmes that highlight climate-related actions within the context of SMEs’ needs – including access to working capital, knowledge and resources; product competitiveness; and operational costs.
Asia’s premier trade pact needs stronger foundations
February 19th 2022, The Economist (paywall)
The trouble with that argument is that, even without new members, CPTPP lacks enforcement teeth. Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, which works with governments and companies to fashion better trade deals, argues that the pact is weak when it comes to implementation.
Both political and technical challenges underscore the CPTPP’s institutional shortcomings. Despite the complexity of its provisions, Ms Elms points out, few governments have officials working on the pact full-time. More striking, it lacks even a secretariat.
Cambodian officials, experts discuss RCEP benefits
February 11th 2022, Xinhua
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Center in Singapore, who works with governments and companies to help decide trade policy for the region, said, "One of the most impressive things about Cambodia is the ability of the Cambodian government to be forward-looking."
"I'm pleased to say that Cambodia so far has been in front of many governments in the region in trying to get this information into the hands of businesses and making it accessible," she said.
She encouraged businesses interested in benefiting from RCEP to contact the Ministry of Commerce in learning about what tariffs are being removed and what rules need to be followed, in order to get this prized Proof of Origin Certificate (POC).
Clear guides for RCEP benefits still elusive
February 10th 2022, The Phnom Penh Post
Asian Trade Centre executive director Deborah Elms said that a clear understanding of RCEP rules of origin would bring major benefits to private businesses intending to export goods, and smooth trade among signatories, which include some of the biggest buyers of Cambodian merchandise and that of other members.
She underlined that the RCEP also aims to encourage mutual investment, and is not exclusively centred on goods imports and exports.
RCEP: why benefits from the world’s largest trade pact may not be as clear-cut as they seem
February 9th 2022, South China Morning Post
Proving finished goods can meet RCEP’s “rules of origin” can be complicated, but the agreement provides companies with some flexibility in doing so, according to Singapore’s Asian Trade Centre.
“If we talk about RCEP’s impact on e-commerce, there is in fact a broad exception on data flow that governments can do everything to limit it anyway,” said Deborah Elms, the executive director at the Asian Trade Centre.
RCEP’s digital commitments are weak because many elements like data and information protection are not included, she said.
Now COVID threatens Australia Day barbies
January 14th 2022, Australian Financial Review
Deborah Elms. executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, is wary of a possible surge in infections following the Chinese New Year.
“We’re expecting COVID-19 spikes everywhere that celebrates the holiday, and I would assume China won’t be immune. If the virus is circulating inside of China, it will get worse. And if the Chinese government’s response is increasing closures, that will be incredibly disruptive.”
She says that while many firms have faced problems navigating COVID-19, China hasn’t been one of them as the country’s factories kept producing. That could change. “If you are a supply chain manager, something you haven’t had to worry about the best part of two years might suddenly have to be added to your list of concerns,” Elms says.
The ‘Mother of All’ Supply Shocks Lurks in China’s Covid Crackdowns
January 12th 2022, Bloomberg
How China’s control of the virus plays out will ultimately be crucial, said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. Those companies whose supply chains are fully located inside China may be insulated by the country’s mitigation strategy. But that won’t apply to everyone, she said.
“Lots of products in supply chains come from outside China,” Elms said. “Given challenges elsewhere, even zero Covid doesn’t solve all the issues of disruption.”
Will policy reforms, new laws expose Cambodia to more treaty-based suits?
November 11th 2021, The Phnom Penh Post
“Foreign firms can certainly lose money and may have no right to access ISDS provisions. The basic point is to ensure that when the government feels the need to expropriate or seize investments for legitimate public purposes and fails to deliver adequate compensation for the loss of the investment, foreign firms have a way to respond,” said Elms, the founder and executive director of Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre Pte Ltd.
Like any firm in a market, foreign firms can also use the local court system, she said.
However, in circumstances where the government has seized an asset and failed to compensate, it is also possible or likely that the local court system “may not take a fair” view of the case, as it would have to rule against its own government.
China seizing Pacific trade opportunities while U.S. still pursues ‘America First'
November 10th 2021, Japan Times (paywall)
“For the U.S., which is really weakly anchored on the economic side in the region, they are falling behind,” said Deborah Elms, founder of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Center, which has extensive contacts with companies and governments in the region. “You have an administration again that is putting ‘America First’ using different language.”
November 5th 2021, South China Morning Post (paywall)
"The agreement follows a similar 'pathfinder' to the TPP - started by a group of Apec [Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation] economies keen to build a new kind of trade deal with accession possible to include more economies in the future," said Deborah Elms, trade executive director with the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre.
"For quite a while, though, DEPA didn't go anywhere. It took time for all three original members to even achieve entry into force. Then Canada mentioned it wanted to join. And now, suddenly, China."
Elms was, however, surprised because China had not previously expressed any interest in the DEPA, unlike it had with the CPTPP.
"Can China join? Yes, and not so much. On the one hand, DEPA was deliberately designed to gather consensus among potential members around a common set of issues," Elms said. "To get more traction, and spread widely, the modules needed to be quite flexible, with few that are binding. In that sense, China can certainly join.
"But on the other hand, the ideas embedded in DEPA can be seen as quite problematic for China, given its current digital trajectory."
China applies to join digital trade pact with Singapore and NZ
November 1st 2021, Nikkei Asia (soft paywall)
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director of Singapore-based advocacy group Asian Trade Centre, agreed that is likely Beijing's main motivation for applying to DEPA.
"Is it [applying] because China is prepared to make significant digital changes or is it just another way for China to block good digital policymaking?" she said. "From my perspective, both of the arguments are at least plausible and make sense."
CPTPP could supplant ‘out-of-date’ WTO
November 1st 2021, South China Morning Post (interview)
S. Korea's decision to join CPTPP free trade agreement pushed back to early November
October 22nd 2021, Arirang (with video)
Founder and Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre, Deborah Elms also warned that the longer Seoul delays its decision, the greater the loss will be.
Malaysia welcomes China's bid to join CPTPP
September 22nd 2021, Nikkei Asia (soft paywall)
"Many will suggest that keeping China constrained by a set of rules that are consistent is better than trying to compete with China operating outside of the same rulebook," said Deborah Elms, executive director of Asian Trade Center, an advocacy group.
Kamala Harris is set to visit Southeast Asia as U.S.-China tensions rise. Here’s what to expect
August 19th 2021, CNBC
While there are “sensible reasons” for the U.S. to pursue and lead a new digital agreement, Washington may have a hard time convincing other countries to join, said Deborah Elms, executive director of consultancy Asian Trade Centre.
Elms explained in a report last week that such agreements are not new and the U.S. would be entering “an increasingly crowded landscape.” Deals that include digital initiatives include the CPTPP and the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, she noted.
“The US will need to have a clear and convincing rationale for starting over with yet another trade arrangement and it will need to provide value-add for potential members. Otherwise, it could be the case that the US offers to lead the party and discovers few takers,” wrote Elms.
Global Supply Chains Are Being Battered by Fresh Covid Surges
August 15th 2021, Bloomberg (soft paywall)
“Delta is likely to significantly disrupt trade in Asia,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. “Most of the markets have been fortunate in managing Covid well so far. But as Covid continues to spread, this lucky streak is likely to end for many locations.”
China not Southeast Asia’s top investor, but fears over its economic influence persist: study
August 13th 2021, South China Morning Post (paywall)
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, said Chinese investment stood in contrast to Japanese investments "which are substantial but not often unnoticed".
"It's not that the Japanese try to hide investments, but rather they have been consistently delivering investments, projects, manufacturing plants, other projects, for so long that it is easy to forget the size and scale," Elms said.
Aussie Wine Exports to Hong Kong Soar After China Tariff Hit
July 21st 2021, Bloomberg
Still, direct delivery options that grew popular during the pandemic make it “easier than ever to get wine in any label into the hands of eager consumers,” according to Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. The product in Hong Kong could be held by wholesalers or specialist sellers privately and then sold directly to customers in China, she said.
“If I had to guess, the wine in Hong Kong is not staying in Hong Kong,” Elms said. “Once you build a culture of eating and drinking at home, it might be a lasting shift for many.”
Banned Australian Lobsters Are Sneaking Into China Via Hong Kong
June 25th 2021, Bloomberg
“It’s highly unlikely that locked-down Hong Kong citizens are suddenly buying, cooking and eating 20 times more lobster in their homes over the last six months,” said Deborah Elms, the Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. “Lobster is a high-value product. As with any high-value product, the incentives to skirt the rules are also high.”
Backdoor shipments from other economies are often a means of sidestepping restrictions, according to the Asian Trade Centre’s Elms.
Cambodia’s new tax on online services could hurt consumers and businesses
June 2nd 2021, Khmer Times
“Cambodia’s new law appears to be quite sweeping, which means that all kinds of companies are likely to be at risk. While authorities might prefer to tackle tax collection from larger, mostly foreign firms, it can be much easier for regulators to find and address issues at the domestic level,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of Singapore-based Asian Trade Center. “This means that the implications will likely be felt most keenly by smaller firms in Cambodia and by Cambodian consumers.”
Biden Faces Hard Sell in Asia for Anti-China Digital Trade Pact
April 15th 2021, Bloomberg
Beyond the enormous technical difficulties the U.S. would face in completing a wide-ranging digital trade agreement, the question over how it’s perceived in Beijing will prove crucial, said Deborah Elms, founder of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Center, which has extensive contacts with companies and governments in the region.
“If this becomes seen as or is in fact a method to contain China, then, in my view, it’s dead in the water,” she said. “Even countries that are ambitious on digital who broadly would agree, who are even worried about China in the digital space, would say, ‘That is a commitment that I’m not ready to make. I don’t want to join an agreement that is explicitly about containing China, or anti-China, or in any way carves out China.’”
Managing digital trade in Asia
April 20th 2021, East Asia Forum
Article written by Dr. Deborah Elms
Commentary: Don't be too quick to dismiss the economic benefits of RCEP for Southeast Asia
April 7th 2021, Channel News Asia
Article written by Dr. Deborah Elms
Payments: the missing piece of the financing puzzle
March 16th 2021, Trade Finance Global
Article written by Dr. Deborah Elms
China steps up talk of joining CPTPP
March 11th 2021, Global Trade Review
If China joins, it will also wield negotiating power if the US also attempts to re-enter the bloc under new President Joe Biden, says Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, a think tank.
“The advantage of being in versus being out… is that the current members get to decide whether new members are going to be allowed in. And of course they get to decide, in part with the others, what are the provisions that [they’re] going to accept from this new member.”
She believes Xi’s remark on the CPTPP last year is a signal that China’s leaders are serious about the move, and as further positive messages come out from the Chinese administration about the potential for the country’s accession to the deal, the US will have to move quickly in order not to be shut out.
U.S., EU Reach WTO Tariff-Quota Pact Post Brexit, USTR Says
March 9th 2021, Bloomberg
Now that the tariff-rate quotas have been settled, agricultural exporters to the EU and U.K. will have to be on guard for how those levels could impact their shipments, said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. If the EU’s tariff-rate quotas now lean more toward members that import fewer products than others, foreign firms could lose out.
The agreement could also prove a critical test of future U.S.-EU trade negotiations, Elms said.
“There are no other trade arrangements in place between the U.S. and the EU and the U.S. and the U.K.,” she said. “Getting it ‘wrong’ now means using a baseline for any future trade negotiations that is less favorable to the U.S.”
February 16th 2021, South China Morning Post (paywall)
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, said the expanded trade ties between the EU and China showed why the EU was keen to agree the CAI.
“The volume of two-way transactions increasingly requires some sort of framework and structure to help govern the investment relationship,” Elms said.
“What will now become equally important to all [China, the EU and the US], and to everyone else, is trying to craft global trade rules that work for all three parties,” Elms said.
China-backed trade deal seen helping investors, not workers
February 11st 2021, Al Jazeera
Deborah Elms, founder and executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, said she was concerned that RCEP does not provide investors protection against governments that try to expropriate private assets.
“Given the size of many infrastructure projects, this may be a problem for many firms,” she said.
January 25th 2021, CNBC
Climate could also form a platform for a restoration of U.S.-China relations, according to Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre.
“It’s a key deliverable for Biden and it’s a key deliverable for his party, so I think you should expect a very different relationship from the U.S. on climate issues,” she told CNBC.
NYSE delisting U-turn on China telcos shows executive order lacks clarity: Expert
January 6th 2021, CNBC (interview)
Globalization strikes back after COVID carnage
December 23rd 2020, Deutsche Welle
"I would like to say, we will come back cleaner, we'll come back greener, will come back with a little less focus on cost-cutting. But the problem is that you are expecting people to pay extra for that," said Deborah Elms, executive director at Asian Trade Centre. "Then you have the question coming out of COVID: can firms and consumers afford to be spending more in a post-COVID world than they spend now?"
Elms says companies, which have seen their balance sheets disrupted by the pandemic, are only going to focus more on keeping their costs under check going forward.
Trump's final trade jab may be tariffs on Vietnamese goods - experts
December 21st 2020, Reuters
"It is wise to be planning now for the conclusion of the Section 301 process because, especially with the Treasury designation, it is extremely likely that the United States will impose some kind of retaliation against Vietnam," said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre.
"There will be economic consequences," Elms told a Friday web event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam.
China coge el trono del comercio mundial
December 6th 2020, El País
Su puesta en práctica, que podría demorarse un año hasta que al menos seis de los 10 países de la ASEAN y otros tres de los cinco miembros restantes lo ratifiquen, coincidirá en principio con una revitalización de las 15 economías en un escenario postcovid. Ambas circunstancias pueden allanar el camino para “años de un buen ritmo de crecimiento” en Asia, apunta Deborah Elms, directora del Centro Asiático de Comercio, lo que contribuiría a desplazar cada vez más el eje geopolítico y económico hacia este continente, que supondrá el 50% del PIB mundial y hasta un 40% del consumo global en 2040, según la consultora McKinsey.
Xi Jinping Kaji Gabung Perjanjian Dagang yang Ditinggal Trump Baca artikel
November 20th 2020, CNN Indonesia
Pakar perdagangan internasional yang berbasis di Singapura Deborah Elms mengatakan jika China benar-benar bergabung dengan CPTPP, hal itu dapat mendorong negara lain untuk ikut bergabung.
"Jika pernyataan ketertarikan (bergabung CPTPP) Xi terus ditekankan dalam beberapa minggu dan bulan mendatang, tentu saja akan menimbulkan banyak pertanyaan dari anggota saat ini, calon anggota dan lainnya yang sama sekali tidak memikirkan keanggotaan CPTPP," kata Elms, direktur eksekutif Asian Trade Center.
How China won and US lost the trade war
November 21st 2020, Asia Times
“The US will need to create a more forward-looking strategy for engaging with the region. This includes greater participation and attendance at ASEAN events and other regular meetings in Asia. It will also need to figure out how to create stronger economic engagement,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre consultancy.
November 16th 2020, South China Morning Post (paywall)
Deborah Elms, a Singapore-based trade consultant, said she currently did not see "particular challenges" in ratifying the RCEP, but said "complex internal procedures" in some countries could mean the deal came into effect later for these economies.
"Hence, a country like Australia often struggles to ratify any trade deal quickly," said Elms, founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre consultancy. "They have to be given a specific impact analysis, run through special committees, read in parliament multiple times and so forth. It takes time. Most of the rest are much less complicated."
November 16th 2020, South China Morning Post (paywall)
Deborah Elms, a Singapore-based trade analyst and founder of the Asian Trade Centre, said the RCEP would not be a game changer for China because the country was already the biggest or second biggest trade partner of every nation in the region.
But she argued the pact would still bring benefits, saying: “It was less attractive ... in the past because the purchasing power of consumers in the region was lower and because trade costs remained relatively high.
“As these costs fall in RCEP and as the region has continued to experience economic growth, Asian trade for Asia makes more sense.”
She said it may also concentrate minds in Washington and Brussels, as American and European businesses risk missing out on the benefits that firms operating in RCEP countries will enjoy, such as “lower or eliminated tariffs, more access for services, improved access and protection for investments”.
World's largest free trade agreement signed in coup for China
November 15th 2020, AFP
"COVID has reminded the region of why trade matters and governments are more eager than ever to have positive economic growth," said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based consultancy.
Covid-Era Subsidies Are Only Going to Worsen Global Trade Frictions
October 20th 2020, Bloomberg
Such questions around renewed nationalism exacerbated tensions between open and closed economies during the crisis, said Deborah Elms, founder and executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. That friction is set to worsen, forcing businesses to re-evaluate their supplier bases.
“The default will be: closer to home, regional agreements, bilateral agreements, where firms — if they’re smart — will start leveraging these opportunities,” she said.
Biden set to carve own brand of tough-on-China policy if elected
September 29th 2020, Japan Times
“He’s going to be way more cautious on removing tariffs than people expect, because that’s money. That’s money coming in,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore. “After they’ve been in place for a certain amount of time, the tariff revenue is baked into the budget, and you’d need to find an offset to account for that.”
Australia keen on penning RCEP trade pact this year despite disputes with China
July 10th 2020, South China Morning Post (paywall)
“I believe that RCEP will be signed as intended [at the RCEP Summit Meeting] in November,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre and president of the Asia Business Trade Association in Singapore.
“This does not mean that getting the last details into order has been a simple matter. But the 15 members have invested significant time, attention and resources in making this happen,” she said.
Power shift: How America’s retreat is reshaping global affairs
June 26th 2020, Christian Science Monitor
The TPP would have included nations that make up 40% of the world economy; the new agreement encompasses only half that. “When you take the world’s largest economy out of the equation, the numbers don’t look as good,” says Deborah Elms, who heads the Asian Trade Centre, an advocacy group in Singapore.
“It would be much better for everybody if the U.S. was still in,” Dr. Elms adds. The trade deal works and offers “substantial benefits” to its members, she says. But without Washington as a driving force, “it hasn’t had quite the traction it should have done.”
June 11th 2020, South China Morning Post (paywall)
“There really isn’t much on free-trade zones in the WTO rule book,” said Deborah Elms, executive director at consultancy Asian Trade Centre. “When these were originally created, the economic challenges related to them seemed relatively minor.
“But as they have proliferated, and as more illicit and flat-out illegal stuff happens inside the zones, and as more and more of global trade takes place in and between them, the bigger concerns have grown. I’m sure as people start to reflect on Hainan, more people may try to object.”
Coronavirus pandemic will cause a ‘much bigger wave’ of protectionism, says trade expert
April 9th 2020, CNBC
Interview (video and news article)
What Southeast Asia can gain from China-backed trade agreement
November 11th 2019, ABS-CBN News (Interview)
The odds of tariffs being hiked are 'quite high': Asian Trade Centre
July 1st 2019, CNBC (interview)
The Unsexy Challenges of CPTPP
January 23rd 2019, Nikkei Asia
Members must focus on implementing the trade accord, or risk embarrassment.
Trump Needs a Win on NAFTA, interview with Bloomberg
August 30th 2018, Bloomberg
GTR Asia Trade & Treasury Week Interview
August 2018
Asian Trade's Elms Calls Far Away Trade Talk Dates Disturbing
May 7th 2018, Bloomberg
Asian Trade Centre Executive Director and founder Deborah Elms weighs in on U.S. and China trade talks. She speaks on "Bloomberg Markets."
Some Companies May Reduce Their Reliance on the US after Trump's Trade Moves
April 4th 2018, CNBC
"In an environment of growing uncertainty and risk, the CPTPP helps by providing stability," said Deborah Elms, executive director at the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre. "The agreement itself provides considerable new opportunities for member firms to find new markets or to save money — this should push companies to diversify their own portfolio and rely less on the U.S."
Why Trump's Tariffs Create Problems for Global Trading
March 13th 2018, Bloomberg
"Deborah Elms, Asian Trade Center executive director, discusses the effects of President Trump's tariffs on the global trading system. She speaks to Haidi Lun on "Bloomberg Markets.""
China And Vietnam Both Want Foreign Investment, But Is There Enough Capital To Go Around?
Mar 11th 2018, Forbes
"Some foreign manufacturers want to diversify out of China into Vietnam, says Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre advocacy group in Singapore. Both are growing fast, but Vietnam has a reputation for making life easier."
Mar 12th 2018, The Economist
"Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre, a think-tank, calls CPTPP the “most important trade agreement we've had in two decades”. The deal is very similar to its parent pact, though 22 of the TPP’s provisions have been suspended, reducing the total number of pages in the agreement from 632 to 580. The remainder covers much more than just the exchange of goods and services, with broader requirements in areas such as labour, the environment and government procurement. Its members—Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam—constitute 13.5% of the world economy. The gains will only be a third as much as had been expected under TPP but these are still meaningful. The economies of the CPTPP members will be made 1.7% larger than they would have been, on average, by 2030, according to estimates from the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The biggest winners, in percentage terms, are poorer nations like Vietnam and Peru, who are expected see their economies expand by 2-3% each. And most of these benefits are likely to accrue quickly. Two months after six of the 11 members ratify the agreement, it will come into force. "
With Friends Like These ... Trump's Tariffs Hurt Asian Allies
Mar 6 2018, Bloomberg Quint
The risk is that the Trump administration’s explanation for the tariff decision sparks a full-blown trade war, according to Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre.
“By using ‘national security’ as the justification for what is basic protectionism, it opens the gates wide open for every other country in the world to do the same,” said Elms, who is also a senior fellow in the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry’s Trade Academy. She said “the Trump remedy” is going to “hit the entirely wrong targets.”
Thailand again 'thinking' about joining TPP
Mar 1 2018, Bangkok Post
“Thailand ought to join,” Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, an advisory group based in Singapore, said in an email. “Once the agreement moves ahead after signature next week, many countries are likely to relook at joining.”
According to Elms, the trade pact gives member countries access to benefits such as zero tariffs, better services, investment and protection for intellectual property rights, as well easier movement of goods across borders into other member countries.
“For anyone involved in supply chains, especially, TPP is a no-brainer,” Elms said.
Australian exporters welcome FTA with Peru
February 22 2018, Global Trade Review
“I think the various bilateral agreements underway between CPTPP members serve three purposes,” Deborah Elms, CEO of the Asian Trade Centre, tells GTR. “One, to remind the broader community that trade remains open; two, to capture a few additional details that cannot be promised in a larger setting; and three, as a fallback option just in case there are challenges with getting CPTPP signed and implemented on schedule.”
Rethinking the TPP Without the U.S.
February 3 2018, Barron's
This is the biggest deal we’ve had in trade since Nafta,” crows Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore.
What did Trump say that matters to business in Asia?
January 31 2018, BBC
"He talked about American intellectual property protection, but didn't talk about China in that context," Deborah Elms, vice-chairman of the Asian Business Trade Association tells me.
"The system was sort of primed for him to announce something... but that's not to say a trade war may not be coming in the future."
All 11 CPTPP countries agree on huge deal in Japan
January 24, 2018, National Business Review New Zealand
Singapore-based Asia Trade Centre director Deborah Elms says other than Canada, the 10 other nations had the deal “locked up” in November. “Canada was wavering because [Canada prime minister Justin] Trudeau has never been convinced that CPTPP matters, nor is he certain this is the best vehicle for Canada’s engagement in Asia. It’s not clear what, exactly, he doesn’t like, which makes it hard to figure out what would satisfy him. “But, as it turns out, Canada was more committed than I thought. They managed to get the whole deal fixed up today,” she says.
Asian countries open to, but baffled by UK TPP interest
January 11 2018, Global Trade Review
“While the UK has strong incentives to want in to the TPP, it is less clear why the Pacific countries would want to expand the deal to the Atlantic and the UK. The UK market is not insignificant, of course. Getting additional members into the TPP helps the existing countries by increasing the size of the overall market included in the agreement,” writes Deborah Elms, CEO of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, in a recent blog post.
Deborah Elms: It may be smaller, but the new TPP is still a big deal
November 30 2017, Nikkei Asian Review
Written by Deborah Elms
TPP 11: How Asia Took The Lead In Free Trade
March 7 2018, Nikkei Asian Review
"It shows how upside-down our world has become that the U.S. -- which drove the [TPP] initiative from the early days, stood to benefit from it significantly and will be harmed by being out of it -- has pulled out and gone in the completely opposite direction," said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Center in Singapore. "The U.S. has ceded its leadership on trade to Asia."
January 2018, ABC
Assessing the health of Asian trade: Conflicts, disputes and geopolitical priorities
December 2017, Global Trade Review Podcast Channel
Deborah Elms spoke during the 9.40 Economist Debate: Assessing the health of Asian trade on day 1 of GTR Asia Trade & Treasury Week 2017. Listen to her sharing on GTR podcast channel, Episode 1 – Assessing the health of Asian trade: Conflicts, disputes and geopolitical priorities
The Revised TPP Is Still A Big Deal
November 16 2017, Nikkei Asian Review
The Trans-Pacific Partnership from Inside Asia Podcast
August 25 2017, Podcast
Trump's NAFTA talks have major implications for countries on the other side of the world
August 18 2017, CNBC
"Anyone else thinking about doing a bilateral deal with the U.S. is watching to see what a bilateral with this administration looks like," Elms said.
Expert says UK 'CRAZY' to push for post-Brexit US deal as Liam Fox woos Washington
July 24 2017, Express
“The UK is engaged in the most complicated negotiations ever in trying to extricate itself from the EU, it’s trying to join or rejoin the World Trade Organisation on its own independent terms.”
UK is "crazy" to start trade talk with US now
July 23 2017, CNBC
Rebooting supply chains: shorter, smarter and more sustainable?
May 2017, The Economist Intelligence Unit
Dr. Elms contributed to this report by sharing her view in in-depth interview with the EIU.
Asian Trade Centre's Elms Says TPP Can and Will Survive
May 22 2017, Bloomberg
Dr. Elms shared her outlook for the future of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Pacific Alliance looks to Asia as NAFTA, TPP face uncertainty
May 21 2017, CNBC
Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, said though Pacific Alliance members are trying to widen the appeal of the bloc, it was "big on rhetoric, short on deliverables."
Banyan: Can TPP go ahead without America?
May 4 2017, The Economist
"Yet Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre, a trade-advisory group in Singapore, says the remaining 11 members’ gains from TPP would still be large even without America (as are the forgone gains for America in several sectors including food and services). The gains apply even to the poorest member, Vietnam, whose garment and footwear industries, underpinned by cheap labour, would benefit from access to the markets of the other rich members."
Japan's Feb. Trade Surplus Is at $7.29 Billion
March 22 2017, Bloomberg
Dr Elms' interview with Bloomberg
"Japan’s exports rose the most in two years in February, after a lull in January that was due to the Lunar New Year celebrations in Asian trading partners. Asian Trade Centre Executive Director Deborah Elms weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia."
Japan's Trade Surplus vis-à-vis the US and the TPP
March 22 2017, Bloomberg
March 17 2017, Nitor Network Podcast
Japan could lead a resurgent TPP: Asian Trade Centre
March 15 2017, CNBC
""If you look at what the U.S. committed in the TPP, the reality is they did very little, in part because the U.S. market is already open," Deborah Kay Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, told CNBC."
After US drops TPP, China joins member states in trade talks
March 14 2017, CNBC
"China won't be taking the lead on the Chile talks, Deborah Kay Elms, executive director at Asian Trade Centre, told CNBC. "The onus is on the current members, particularly Japan, to decide if they want to continue promoting the gold standard agreement or consign it to the dust bin.""
TPP Summit a Critical Moment for Canada’s Asian Trade Ambitions
March 13 2017, The Globe and Mail
Written by Carlo Dade and Deborah Elms
RCEP Envoys Make Progress on Trade Deal in Kobe But Complexity Threatens Timeline
March 3 2017, Japan Times
"“Apparently (Chinese negotiators) are known for biding their time and then releasing all their requests at the very end of the negotiations. Hopefully they will not wait until too late in the talks this time, because ASEAN in particular takes a long time to come to any sort of agreement,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Center in Singapore, who attended the first four days of the Kobe round."
Asia Goes Back to the Future on Trade to Manage in Trump Times
February 15 2017, Bloomberg
"The prospect of sitting down at the table will be daunting for any country, according to Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based consultancy that also trains trade negotiators.
“In order for you to have a U.S. first at all time and in all categories, the other party in a bilateral negotiation must be getting the short end of the stick every single time,” she said. “Why would any party sign up to that kind of agreement?”"
How the TPP could survive without the US
February 14 2017, Southeast Asia Globe
Written by Deborah Elms and Minh Hue Nguyen
These Countries Could Be Trump’s Next Trade War Targets
February 13, 2017, Bloomberg
“Almost every country in Asia exports somewhere between an awful lot and a lot to the United States,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based consultancy. “Trade deficits are a problem. At any moment there could be an angry Donald Trump in your face or a Twitter coming your way. Have other countries woken up to this problem? Perhaps not.”
Trump Trade Plans Spell Trouble For Asia Apparel Sourcing
February 3 2017, Just-Style
"It is a little unclear how they intend this to work but it would hit the apparel industry extremely hard," Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, told just-style.
If Trump Hits China, Regional Demand Would Soften Blow in Asia
February 3 2017, Bloomberg
"We do have more demand coming out of Asia than before," said Deborah Elms, Singapore-based executive director of the Asian Trade Center. "So there will be less of an impact than there might have been at other points of history."
A TPP without America: A viable idea, if political will exists
February 3 2017, Today Online
"Dr Deborah Elms (DE): I doubt that leaders of TPP signatories will be held accountable for the US withdrawal from the trade pact. It seems fairly clear that Mr Trump is so unpredictable that it would be hard for anyone to pin the blame for the US’ withdrawal on others at this juncture. However, I do think that these leaders will be judged on how well they manage the fallout from the US withdrawal; this is especially so if the economic landscape changes dramatically against the TPP members."
The TPP is dead. Long live the TPP
January 30 2017, iPolitics
"Ratifying the TPP would send an unequivocal message that Canada is worth time and attention as a trading partner because it can negotiate and, more importantly, get agreements approved by its Parliament. In an Asia overwhelmed by the rush to adjust to the Trump era, this is a crucial asset for a country trying to cut through the competition for attention"
The TPP is dead. Long live the TPP
January 27 2017, The Straits Times
"Now that President Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, does it mean the deal is dead? Emphatically not."
January 26 2017, TRT World
Executive Director of the Asian Trade Centre, Deborah Elms, offers her opinions during a live interview with TRT World on whether quitting the TPP will help American workers.
Elms argues that, "The TPP would have helped small companies, consumers, the environment and labour. And killing the TPP has harmed all those interests".
Tuesday, January 1, 2017, Bloomberg
"Deborah Elms, executive director of Asian Trade Centre, discusses Donald Trump's policies and the concerns over a trade war between the U.S. and China. She speaks to Bloomberg's Tom Mackenzie on "Bloomberg Markets" from the UBS Greater China Conference in Shanghai."
Chinese Media Warn of Conflict with US as Trump Appoints Navarro
Friday, December 23, 2016, CNBC
"The Chinese are now frantically reading everything Navarro's written, becoming increasingly worried and scrambling to see who they can reach out to," said Elms. She believes a full-blown trade war may be inevitable if Trump continues to fill top posts by anti-China strategists."
Friday, December 2, 2016, ChinaDailyAsia
“If the TPP does die, it is the loss of a lot of work. Five years of negotiations, more than 20 formal rounds of talks and many more informal negotiating sessions, thousands of flights and countless hours in country capitals,” said Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre, a regional policy strategy firm."
For TPP, Ball is in Asia's Court: Expert
Wednesday, 23 November 2016, CNBC
"The TPP is dead in the water in the U.S. but trade isn't dead in Asia, says Deborah Kay Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Centre."
Trump to dump TPP trade deal: World leaders react
Tuesday, 22 November 2016, BBC
"This is very depressing news. It means the end of US leadership on trade and the passing of the baton to Asia. At a time of slowing economic growth, the world can ill-afford watching the largest economies turn inward."
With Trump win, China looks to seize Asia free trade leadership
Tuesday, 22 November 2016, Reuters
"Deborah Elms, who runs the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre consultancy and advises governments, said the lack of U.S. involvement in future trade deals could spur more off-shoring by U.S. companies.
"If you want to take advantage of RCEP, you need to be in Asia to service Asian markets. That means you need to be physically present with at least some part of your operation," Elms said.
Governments in the region should take advantage of RCEP momentum, she said."
Poundwatch: The view from Asia
Monday, 3 October 2016, BBC
"Brexit is really important for investors in Asia," Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, told me. "Most Asian investors have routed their European investments through the UK. The UK market alone is not the reason these companies are in the UK."
Mon 31 Oct 2016, BBC
"Meanwhile, Deborah Elms of Singapore's Asian Trade Centre and a senior fellow in the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry's Trade Academy, tells us what is at stake from an Asian point of view. And, on a lighter note, Lucy Kellaway of the Financial Times loses her mobile phone and tells us how she survived phonelessness."
TPP has one window of opportunity
Sunday, 25 Sep 2016, CNBC
The ratification of the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal could still happen during the "lame duck" period, says Asian Trade Center's Deborah Elms.
Is the U.S. Missing the TPP Train?
August 26 2016, Bloomberg
"Renegotiation in search of a better deal that can win over critics in Washington isn’t an option, says Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, an advisory firm in Singapore. She adds: “As soon as the U.S. starts to modify the agreement, the other 11 countries are going to say, ‘We have things we would like to add.’ Then it unravels.”"
[...] "However, if the TPP has no future, then countries that had been counting on that agreement will instead push to make RCEP stronger. “They will double down on getting RCEP done and having a meaningful agreement,” says the Asian Trade Centre’s Elms. A TPP failure “really changes the dynamic of what happens in Asia.”"
PM Lee is right - this US Congress must pass the TPP
August 24 2016, The Straits Times
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an agreement that helps keep the US front and centre in the Asia-Pacific and we share Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's hope that the United States Congress will ratify it.
Former US trade official urges TPP concessions
August 22 2016, Radio New Zealand
Asian Trade Centre executive director Deborah Elms said the US was in danger of damaging its ability to negotiate free trade deals if TPP failed.
"Washington has this sense that somehow you cannot do the TPP, and everybody else will continue to negotiate with Washington. I think that's a mistake.
"I think if the TPP doesn't pass, I don't see why New Zealand would ever, at least in the near term, sit down with the Americans and negotiate on any other important trade deals. Because why would New Zealand do that? Why would Australia do that? Why would Japan do that?"
Aborting TPP Would Damage U.S. Trade Credibility : ATC
August 11 2016, Bloomberg TV Malaysia
The future credibility of trade deals involving the United States will be called into question if America chooses to withdraw from the TPP, says Deborah Elms, Asian Trade Centre executive director. She speaks to Bloomberg TV Malaysia's Sophie Kamaruddin.
Will US approve TPP in lame-duck period?
June 20 2016, Radio New Zealand
“But the executive director of the Asian Trade Centre in Singapore, Deborah Elms is hopeful the many years of negotiations will not be wasted.
"The few sensible people left in the room recognise that the odds of approval after that [November's elections] are not promising, and I think there are a number of people who've realised that it needs to get done," Dr Elms said.
Dr Elms and other TPP supporters are banking on Congress backing the TPP in the period between elections in November and mid-January - the so-called lame duck period.
"The lame-duck session is one where all rules don't apply. Lots of unpopular things get done in the lame-duck period, and I think in this particular lame-duck period TPP is the first thing on the agenda of unpopular things that will get done.””
Bid to get a China-backed Asia trade pact in 2016 seen failing short
June 17 2016, Reuters
“Deborah Elms, executive director of the private Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, said progress wasn't anywhere near enough for a 2016 deal.
"If we are just talking about some countries making adjustments to initial offers we are not ready to close. We are not in that ballpark," she said.”
Spotlight: G20 must take action on slow global growth
May 26 2016, Xinhua
“With the Doha round still in a deadlock, experts expect G20 policymakers to seek progress in certain segments of trade when they gather in China's coastal city of Hangzhou in September.
"It's not going to be easy. But if you don't move forward, then the alternative, from my perspective, is not particularly promising, either, especially at a time when you have global slowdowns," said Deborah Elms, executive director of Asian Trade Center, a Singapore-based consultancy.”
Experts have put forward different explanations, citing both cyclical and structural factors, however, they remain unconvincing.
"It's puzzling. We don't have a clear understanding of what's going on really," Elms said. Elms said protectionism is one of the explanations. So is the slowdown of the world's major consumer markets and the fact that some companies are moving production closer to their final markets. However, she said the above still does entirely explain the slowdown.”
Overseas push critical for growth
March 7 2016, The Business Times
“"If you want to be really competitive in this global economy, you have to have services," said Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre. "So that means you have to push your domestic firms to be competitive in the wider market.””
“Dr Elms called for more policy support to help smaller firms sharpen their competitive edge. Infrastructure for trade finance and payments, for example, can be improved so that firms can internationalise faster.
She also said more effective feedback channels may be needed so that the government will be in tune with what firms need to tap into market opportunities overseas.”
China's trade dispute with EU could turn ugly
January 30 2016, The Straits Times
“"The non-market economy designation has become a symbol. It's hard to argue that you are a great power when you are one of a handful of countries that are non-market," Dr Deborah Elms of the Asian Trade Centre told The Straits Times.”
“Dr Elms said Chinese officials might even be unsure as to how they want to change WTO rules. "I think they just want to be taken seriously as a major player with the ability to influence the agenda... released from the constraints of the accession protocol," she said.”
What difference will TPP make for Singapore?
November 15 2015, The Straits Times
“Says Dr Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, which does research on trade activities in Asia: "In the past, Singaporean firms might have had an advantage with their FTA benefits. However, now competition in some TPP countries could come from new firms.””
And although Singapore already has free trade agreements with all of the TPP countries except Canada and Mexico, and other regional deals through Asean, they "do not have the same depth and breadth of commitments" as the TPP, says Dr Elms. This is because the TPP opens up more sectors than any of Singapore's previous FTAs, she explains.
Also, products assembled by Singapore companies from components sourced from Asean cannot be shipped into the US, Canada or Mexico under the current rules. But when the TPP goes into force, "parts and components can be added from across all 12 countries for shipment into the 12 markets", Dr Elms says.”
Company Stampede to Southeast Asia Seen on Trans-Pacific Partnership Trade Pact
October 7 2015, Wall Street Journal
“The final agreement looks likely to be “the best trade liberalization we’ve seen in 20 years,” said Deborah Elms, co-founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Centre. “I expect there to be quite a stampede” of foreign investment in Southeast Asia when the final text of the agreement is published, she said.”
RCEP: The next trade deal you need to know about
October 14 2015, CNBC (video included)
“Deborah Elms, executive director at Asia Trade Centre, agrees: "The TPP has been viewed [with a fair amount of skepticism] by many of the RCEP countries. They were working towards a deadline at the end of the year ... but they were not under a great deal of pressure. Now that the TPP is closed, I think the pressure for some kind of high quality result out of RCEP is likely to mount.””
“Asia Trade Centre's Elms notes that a "lack of enthusiasm" for trade liberalization in countries such as India and Indonesia is "creating headaches for the more ambitiously-minded countries in the grouping.””
“"If you're not in the TPP and you don't have agreements with the European Union, that's a bit alarming [because] your major trading partners are not connected to you. So [China] will want to make sure that the supply chains in Asia work to their benefit as much as possible," Elms said.”
"Some of the ASEAN countries that are not in the TPP really need to have a higher quality outcome in RCEP [in order] to sustain the competitiveness of their own economies and the region as a whole," Elms told CNBC.”
TPP pact signed, but a tough road lies ahead
February 5 2016, Today Online
“Dr Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, told TODAY that if all 12 nations move quickly, the TPP could come into force within 60 days of the last member state completing its procedures, and this means that the TPP could be launched this year or early next year.
In an emailed response, she noted that TPP nations “created a second mechanism to bring the agreement into force — as long as at least Japan and the US and four other members have finished (ratification) procedures, the deal starts automatically in April 2018”.”
Trade expert sees US Congress hardening against TPP
January 29 2016, National Business Review (NBR)
“Dr Deborah Elms, Executive Director, of the Asian Trade Centre, sums up:
This election cycle has seen increasing tensions in the Republican party. A rise of protectionism appears to have led many candidates to push back against free-trade and free-market ideas. Perceptions matter and many potential voters on the campaign trail seem convinced that global trade has caused them to suffer significant economic harm with limited benefits.” (continued)
Are TPP negotiations finally coming to an end?
September 29 2015, The Online Citizen
“Executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, Dr Deborah Elms, described the TPP as "game-changing", but said it was "not appreciated in many respects". With the agreement aimed at opening up a majority – if not all – of various sectors for investment, negotiations have been tricky as countries have sought to get the best deal for themselves while not giving too much ground in terms of their own protectionist policies.”
“One major issue holding up agreement on the terms of the TPP is that of dairy, Elms said. Canada, a member state, currently has very protectionist measures over its dairy industry and market, with a system in place to keep out foreign – and especially American – dairy products. The Canadian dairy industry also has a strong political voice in Canada – a fact that politicians cannot ignore as the country goes into campaign mode for the next federal election.”
TPP signed: the reactions from Asia
October 7 2015, Global Trade Review
““The academic in me is a bit disappointed as the academic would say you should hit 100%,” Deborah Elms, chair of the Asian Trade Centre tells GTR. “But the reality is that will never happen, so the question is: how far off 100% are you? I think we’re looking at 97% or 98% overall. Even sectors that didn’t get everything they want for the most part got more than they have now.”
““You don’t have to have all 12 economies there at the start. The rules have been drafted so you can have probably eight members covering ‘x%’ of global trade, because they want to make sure to have both the US and Japan at the start. But this gives some wriggle room to countries to decide we don’t want to be there at the beginning,” Elms says.”
November 16 2015, The Straits Times
“Similarly, Asia Trade Centre executive director Deborah Elms says "the battle in the US will be tough" .
"Members of Congress do not see many benefits from voting on trade agreements and an election year in 2016 makes taking a tough vote even harder," she adds.”
Winners and losers in the world's biggest trade deal
July 28 2015, CNBC
“"The biggest winner will be Vietnam as foreign investors start to flood the country. Number two might be Malaysia and number three is Japan," Deborah Elms, executive director at Asia Trade Centre, told CNBC on Tuesday.”
“For Japan, the opening of services markets is a major advantage, explained Elms of Asia Trade Centre. A TPP deal would open the services markets of each member nation to one another, and because Japan's services sector is relatively uncompetitive, it has a lot of room to grow, she said.”
“"This deadline is truly a real deadline [compared to previous ones] because the window is essentially shut," Elms said. "If no agreement is signed by this weekend, countries will have to wait until after the next U.S. presidential election in 2017. By then, who knows what will have happened? I would not like the odds of success then. It's make-or-break now.””
Xi Jinping reiterates US invitation to AIIB
September 23 2015, Global Trade Review
““I think with the AIIB, there is a potential economic part. There is money to be made if you can increase the infrastructure, in both delivering and using said infrastructure. But there is a political part of this, saying: we want to show that we can play a role since we’ve been so cut out of leadership positions in things like the ADB, World Bank, IMF, we will just make our own thank you very much,” Deborah Elms, chair of the Asia Trade Centre, tells GTR.”
Singapore’s Open Economy to See Limited Benefits From TPP
November 19 2015, World Politics Review (paywall)
“In an email interview, Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, discussed the TPP and its expected impact on Singapore’s economy. …”
Thailand's tough choice: TPP or RCEP
October 27 2015, The Nation
“Singapore-based trade expert Deborah Elms said: "With only some Asean countries poised to enjoy the benefits of TPP [currently Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam]; and RCEP poised to link Asean's dialogue partners - including China and India - for the first time, it is more important than ever for Asean to complete its goals under the AEC (Asean Economic Community”.”
Vietnam companies show little interest in TPP
December 15 2015, Thanh Nien News
“The final agreement looks likely to be “the best trade liberalization we’ve seen in 20 years,” Deborah Elms, co-founder and executive director of the Asian Trade Center, said.
“I expect there to be quite a stampede” of foreign investment in Southeast Asia when the final text of the agreement is published, she added.”
TPP helps Vietnam balance economic dependence on China
16 October 2015, VietNamNet Bridge
“Deborah Elms, CEO of the Asia Trade Centre based in Singapore, has the same views with Ambassador Ted Osius, saying that many foreign investors will flock to Vietnam after the TPP takes effect.”
RCEP trade talks in Korea gaining global attention as the emerging Asian equivalent of US-led TPP
October 17 2015, International Business Times (AU)
““If you're not in the TPP and you don't have agreements with the European Union, that's a bit alarming because your major trading partners are not connected to you. So China will want to make sure that the supply chains in Asia work to their benefit as much as possible,” said Deborah Elms, Executive Director at Asian Trade Centre.”
““Some of the ASEAN countries that are not in the TPP really need to have a higher quality outcome in RCEP in order to sustain the competitiveness of their own economies and the region as a whole,” Elms told CNBC.”
Negotiators hope to wrap up Trans-Pacific Partnership talks this month
August 6 2015, Los Angeles Times
“Deborah Elms, a trade specialist in Singapore, called the Hawaii meetings a big letdown given the expectations that a final agreement would be reached.
"I think the plan was to have John Kerry to do a victory lap in Singapore — to say that the pivot [to Asia] is here," said Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Center, a research and consulting firm. If the next round of talks happens in conjunction with the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Malaysia on Aug. 22 to 25, as is being discussed, Elms said she doubted there was enough time to resolve their differences.”
Why US-Japan trade talks are a political theater
April 21 2015, CNBC
“"Even if the economic argument is 100 percent…it's not, because [we] live in a political world," Asian Trade Centre (ATC) executive director Deborah Kay Elms told CNBC. "At this point we're in a little bit of political theater for both sides.””
“And so, at least for now, the Japanese government will fight to keep Japan's 500 percent tariff on rice imports in place, noted ATC's Elms.”
TPP Versus RCEP: What Are The Odds For Thailand? – Analysis
April 6 2016, Eurasia Review
“On the other hand, Singapore-based trade expert Deborah Elms has said, “With only some ASEAN countries poised to enjoy the benefits of TPP (currently Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam); and RCEP poised to link ASEAN’s dialogue partners – including China and India – for the first time, it is more important than ever for ASEAN to complete its goals under the AEC (Asean Economic Community)”.25 It is said that RCEP can create huge benefits and help offset potential losses caused by the TPP.”
What Caused the TPP Talks to Fall Apart?
August 3 2015, Bloomberg
VIDEO
November 26 2014, Politico
““You have the issue that these are not, in Singapore’s view, SOEs like any other — certainly not like the loss-making, corrupt firms found elsewhere in this region,” said Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre.
As US and China meet at APEC summit, a drama involving billions in trade
November 7 2014, Christian Science Monitor
“Because it has no authority to impose anything, “APEC has always faced the challenge of justifying its existence,” says Deborah Elms, founder of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, a new think tank.”
“The 12 trade ministers "have been working unbelievably hard,” says Elms. “I think ... they will try to substantially conclude” this week, she adds, though some contentious issues of market access may need to be resolved next year.”
Senate compromise gives Obama ‘fair’ Pacific trade deal
May 14 2015, Financial Times
““While Washington has gotten stuck in partisan battles over [fast-track authority], the timing for TPP has only gotten worse,” Deborah Elms, the executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, wrote in a blog post on Wednesday.”
““This ‘procedural’ issue in the United States Senate … could end up like the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings,” she wrote. “The consequences of this delay could, indeed, reverberate for a long time to come.””
Mega pacts and the fight for Asia's trade future
December 19 2014, The Nation
“"The TPP can be broader and deeper in part because it's a voluntary agreement - members choose to join," says Deborah Elms, executive director of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre.
"The RCEP countries got 'drafted' by virtue of existing agreements. They therefore have differing levels of enthusiasm for the whole exercise.””
“Elms is among those who expect China to eventually join the TPP. "Chinese firms are increasingly in supply chains and not just as a final assembly point. The benefits for firms inside the TPP will be substantial," she says. But Menon believes the FTAAP is a more likely route than an expanded TPP.”
Free-trade pacts: America’s big bet
November 15 2014, The Economist
“Deborah Elms, head of the Singapore-based Asian Trade Centre, suggests that so far the American pivot has manifested itself mainly as an extra 1,000 marines stationed in Australia. “Without TPP, all the pivot amounts to is a few extra boots on the ground in Darwin,” she says.”
Trans-Pacific Partnership talks stall on US-Japan stand-off
February 25 2014, Financial Times
““Deborah Elms, a trade negotiations expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, said that the failure of the US and Japan to move on market access had meant it was impossible for other countries to move on their respective issues.
“I think what it tells us is that unless and until you get serious high level engagement and focus and a commitment to making those politically sensitive decisions, you are going to be in a state of drift,” she said.”